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  • Qiu Xiaohua (邱晓华)
    Gender : Male
Scholar
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Occupation

Chief economist, Minsheng Securities; Former director of National Bureau of Statistics

Education

In March 1978, study in planning and statistics, department of economics, Xiamen University

In 1998, studied for a doctorate in international finance of Beijing Normal University

Experience

June 2008, he went to the Research Institute of CNOOC as a senior researcher

March 2006, served as director of the National Bureau of statistics; member of the 10th CPPCC National Committee

November 2005, he was Secretary of the Party group of the National Bureau of statistics

July 2003, served as Deputy Secretary of the Party group of the National Bureau of statistics

1999—???? Part-time Professor, Shanghai University of Finance and Economics Shanghai Municipality

1999—???? Part-time Professor, Beijing Normal University Beijing Municipality

1999—???? Part-time Professor, University of Science and Technology of China

1999—???? Part-time Professor, Xiamen University Fujian Province, Xiamen City

1999—2006 Deputy Director, National Bureau of Statistics

Information Spokesman, National Bureau of Statistics, Comprehensive Department

1998—???? Assistant Governor, People's Government Anhui Province

General Economist, National Bureau of Statistics, Comprehensive Department

Deputy Director, National Bureau of Statistics, Comprehensive Department

1998—???? Doctoral Candidate, Beijing Normal University, International Finance Department Beijing Municipality

1997 Standing Member, All-China Youth Federation

1997 Member, All-China Youth Federation

1996—1997 Senior Exchange Visitor, Stanford University USA, California, Stanford (Asia/Pacific Research Center)

In 1982, he was assigned to work in the National Bureau of statistics. He successively served as the deputy director, director, trainee deputy director, deputy director, chief economist and press spokesman of the National Bureau of statistics.

1978 Student, Xiamen University, Economics Department Fujian Province, Xiamen City

Contribution

Leaders of the State Council once called him as "statistical school" in the economic circle, the world bank called him "China's data gentleman", the domestic academic circle called him "an expert and scholar who can popularize complex economic problems", and the media called him "the most popular press spokesman". In recent years, he has continued to work hard in the field of economic research and analysis, giving full play to his personal expertise, accurately analyzing and judging the economic trend, and objectively predicting and interpreting policy changes.

Notable Works|Publications

He has published more than 400 papers on economic statistics in famous domestic journals, and has written such monographs as “The road of China” and “New thinking on China's economy”

Main Opnions

From the perspective of the future real estate situation, we should observe population in the long term, study on land in the medium term and realize policy in the short term.

Population is the most important long-term factor that determines the real estate situation. Today, China's population has changed from the young type to the old type. From this point of view, the strength of long-term real estate support is weakening.

In terms of land, it has now entered a tight balance state, so from the perspective of land, there is still some pressure on the real estate situation.

For short-term situation, the policy of real estate regulation, whether land, financing or long-term mechanism, has an obvious impact on the short-term market, so we should pay more attention to the change of policy.

The conclusion is that the real estate differentiation in the future will be intensified, which is mainly determined by three factors: population flow, economic vitality and ecological environment. From a longer trend, although the regulation is strict, the policy has a bottom line.

The golden period is over, but stable period is just beginning. Restructuring and adjustment are speeding up, and differentiation will become the norm, which we need to pay attention to.

Controversy

Qiu Xiaohua believes that China's real estate industry is still an indispensable and important product of China's economic development, and its position will not change. No matter what is the criticism or affirmation of China's real estate, at least there is one thing no change, that is, the trend of growth on China's industrialization, urbanization and population.

However, Zhu Yunlai put forward: "In terms of the number of houses, our per capita square meter has been very high, in fact, it is a relatively systematic surplus.". I'm afraid that at the current rate, there are more than 6 billion square meters of residential buildings under construction, which is enough to add 200 million people. And according to the plan, there are only 100 million new urbanized people in ten years, so in this case, we don't need to build houses anymore. "

But in case of China's next real estate situation, Qiu Xiaohua still believes that prices in some regions will still rise rigidly.

 

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