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  • Lu Ting (陆挺)
    Gender : Male
Scholar
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Occupation

Chief China economist of Nomura Securities, Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA)

Education

Bachelor and master of economics, Peking University;

Ph.D. in economics, University of California, Berkeley

Experience

In May 2015, he joined Huatai Securities as the director, chief economist and general manager of research department and institutional sales and trading department. Previously, he served as chief economist and managing director of Bank of America Merrill Lynch in Greater China. He has been a consultant in the research department of the East Asia Bureau and the world bank.

Contribution

In 2006, he joined the global macro research department of Merrill Lynch.

In 2010 and 2011, he was rated as the most accurate Chinese economist by Bloomberg news.

In 2012, he won both annual and quarterly forecasts of China's macro-economy on "Vision Cup" of "Securities Market Weekly".

In 2013, 《Asia currency》ranked first in the economist's evaluation.

From 2013 to 2015, the Asia region and China region economists of 《Institutional Investors》ranked first for three consecutive years, and the Chinese research team also ranked first in 2014 and 2015 Asia region evaluation of《Institutional Investors》.

Notable Works|Publications

The Defects Of The Central Bank's Social Finance Index Under The Background Of "Local Social Credit Contraction"

Main Opnions

Lu Ting: China's economic trend in the next 10 years

In the next decade, China's GDP growth rate will drop to about 4%, mainly because of two reasons: 1. The population and labor force are deteriorating rapidly. 2. The rate of return on investment is decreasing;

The downward range of China's investment growth may exceed the previous estimates;

The trend of saving and consumption: The proportion of consumption in GDP increases, and the growth rate of consumption begins to surpass that of investment;

China's urbanization is an inevitable trend;

In terms of geographical region, the economic growth of big cities in the East is in highly sustainable;

Changes in corporate profits and corporate survival: The driving force of growth will change a lot. In the future, China's economic growth will decline, which does not mean that the growth rate of corporate profits will also decline.

Controversy

"Some of the negative views overseas have on China's economy are really misjudgments made because they don't understand China's national conditions, some are investors' attempts to influence the market, some are even sensationalism, but some can be used for reference. As a backward developing country, we must learn from the lessons of developed countries, and we should learn from the experience.

My personal opinion on whether China's economy will collapse is that the weakness of China's stock market in recent years is not the result of the Western malicious comments. In the final analysis, the confidence of domestic and international investors in the Chinese market is relatively low. The market fell in response as soon as there appears any actions. "

 

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