Index > Scholar Wiki
Back
  • Gao Shanwen (高善文)
    Born : September , 1971Gender : Male
Scholar
Comment
Occupation

Chief Economist of Essence Securities, independent director of China Pacific Insurance Group (CPIC)

Education

September, 1988 – July, 1992, he received his Bachelor of Science degree from the Department of electronics, Peking University;

September, 1992 – July, 1995, majoring in macroeconomic analysis, Department of national economic management, School of economics, Peking University, received master's degree in economics;

1999 - 2005, he joined the Graduate Department of the people's Bank of China to study international finance and obtained a doctor's degree in economics;

From the end of 2000 to 2002, he went to Japan for study and further study under the support of the International Monetary Fund, and obtained the master's degree in public policy from the National Institute of policy research of Japan, and practiced in the Research Institute of the Asian Development Bank.

From March to June 2013, according to the arrangement of China Securities Association, studied in Wharton Business School, University of Pennsylvania.

Experience

Prior to joining Essence Securities, he served in General Office of PBOC (1995-2000), Asian Development Bank Institute (2001-2002), Financial Research Group of the Development Research Center of the State Council (2003-2005) and Everbright Securities (2003-2007).

In May 2007, he was transferred to Essence Securities Co., Ltd. as the chief economist. 2009 - 2013, he was also an independent director of sunshine insurance group, and now he is independent director of China Pacific Insurance Group. Other positions include: member of Academic Committee of China finance 40 forum, director of China chief economist forum, director of Beijing Financial Alumni Association of Peking University.

Contribution

Dr.Gao has been focusing on analysing, tracking, and forecasting China’s macroeconomics data and policy, as well as their influence on capital market for years. Dr. Gao is specialized in research of formation mechanism of China’s inflation, productivity cycle, and asset pricing variation. With the experiences and insight in macroeconomics research, Dr.Gao is generally recognized by the institutional investors in China’s capital market. Before 2012, Dr.Gao received first awards in three out of four participations of Yuanjian CupChina’s macroeconomics forecasting rank; and first awards in eleven out of fifteen participations of XinCaifu,Crystal BallandGolden Bull Award analyst rank.

Notable Works|Publications

《Logic of economic operation》

《Looking at Prosperity: worries in the depth of asset revaluation》

《The turning point of the cycle: the fluctuation of China's economy from the perspective of data》

Main Opnions

I used to think that to evaluate a business research report, the reasonable logic is the most important, and the right and wrong prediction is the second. For those who specialize in research and analysis, this may be the view they hold. Now I start to realize that for business research, although there is no contradiction between logic and results in the long run, and both are very important, if we really want to separate the primary and secondary, then the correctness of the results is the first important thing. This is because as a business activity, investors ultimately pursue results rather than reasons, and the vast majority of them do not have the professional analysis ability in the economic field, of course, it is not necessary.

Therefore, the logic of some business reports is not perfect, and there may be more colors depending on experience and subjective judgment, but its business value is great in terms of achieving the right results. There are always many elements of art in investment activities. Besides luck, the mastery of discretion depends on experience, feeling and personal understanding.

Controversy

The theory of assets revaluation and its influence

In March 2006, at a symposium on economic situation, Dr. Gao Shanwen formally put forward the view of "assets revaluation". He believes that from the perspective of the coexistence of monetary credit acceleration and excess capacity, China's broad-spectrum asset prices, including stocks and real estate, may experience a relatively large round of revaluation. At present, this revaluation process is just beginning. At that time, the Shanghai index was near 1250.

Since then, the A-share market has risen sharply, and the term "asset revaluation" has attracted more attention and been recognized by some market participants.

But at the same time, this formulation also attracted quite a wide range of criticism. Many opponents believe that the rise of China's stock market at that time was mainly due to fundamental factors such as the reform of the non tradable share system and the strong growth of the profits of listed companies, which cannot be explained and grasped by the reference of "asset revaluation".

In response to these criticisms, Dr. Gao Shanwen constantly enriched his views on "asset revaluation" and eventually developed into "asset revaluation theory". Relevant contents are included in the research report at that time and later published works such as "Perspective Prosperity", "Logic of Economic Operation", etc.

 

Contact ANBOUND Malaysia Office at :  Suite 25.5, Level 25, Menara AIA Sentral, 30 Jalan Sultan Ismail, 50250 Kuala Lumpur

TEL : +60 3-21413678       Email : malaysia@anbound.com ; ong@anbound.com

Copyright © 2012-2021 ANBOUND RESEARCH CENTRE (MALAYSIA) SDN BHD