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  • Huang Yiping (黄益平)
    Gender : Male
Scholar
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Occupation

Professor of Economics at the National School of Development, Peking University.

Education

Yiping received his Bachelor of agriculture from Zhejiang Agricultural University in 1984, Master of Economics from Renmin University of China in 1987 and PhD in Economics from the Australian National University in 1994.

Experience

Jin Guang Chair Professor of Economics and Deputy Dean, National School of Development (NSD) and Director, Institute of Digital Finance (IDF), Peking University. October 2018, appointed Member of the External Advisory Group on Surveillance, International Monetary Fund. 2015-18, Member of the Monetary Policy Committee, People’s Bank of China. Currently, Vice-Chairman of the Council, Public Policy Research Center, and Research Fellow, Financial Research Center, both at the Counsellor’s Office of the State Council. Chairman of the Academic Committee, China Finance 40 Forum. Member, Chinese Economists 50 Forum. Editor, China Economic Journal; Associate Editor, Asian Economic Policy Review. Current research focuses on financial reform and FinTech. Formerly: Policy Analyst, Research Center for Rural Development of the State Council; Senior Lecturer in Economics, Australian National University; General Mills International Visiting Professor of Economics and Finance, Columbia Business School; Managing Director and Chief Asia Economist, Citigroup; Independent Director, China Life Insurance and Mybank. Bachelor’s in Agricultural Economics, Zhejiang Agricultural University; Master’s in Economics, Renmin University of China; PhD in Economics, Australian National University. His academic research focuses mainly on macroeconomic policy and international financial issues.

Contribution

Special writer of 《Finance》 magazine

Professor, Crawford School of economics and government, Australian National University

Member of China finance 40 Forum (2008 -)

Thesis instructor, Shenzhen business school, Peking University (2005 -)

Member of the editorial board of Australian Journal of agricultural and Resource Economics (2003 -)

Consultant of Shanghai new financial weekly (2003 -)

Honorary Advisor, master of international banking and Finance program, Lingnan University, Hong Kong (2001 -)

Members of the Asia Economic Forum (the forum was first hosted by Harvard University, then by Columbia University, Korea Institute of international economics, Japan Keio University, etc., and held twice a year in the United States and Asia, 2001 -)

Policy consultation

Asian Development Bank Institute, Asia's response to the US subprime crisis, 2008

Asian Development Bank, exchange rate policy and capital flows ten years after the Asian financial crisis, 2007

Participated in the policy consultation meeting of economists of financial institutions held by central banks and governments of China, Indonesia, Malaysia, Australia, Hong Kong and Vietnam, 2000-

Ministry of finance, state owned assets management, 1999-2000

Asian Development Bank Institute, private ownership and enterprise reform, 1999-2000

World Bank, Vietnam rural development strategy, 1998

UNDP, China's integration into the world economy, 1997-1998

ILO, China's economic reform and migration pressure, 1996

International Monetary Fund, China's growth and inflation, 1995

OECD, China's trade reform and its impact on OECD members, 1994-1995

OECD, China's food and oil crop sector, 1994

Asia Pacific Economic Group, Asia Pacific economic framework, 1990-1998

World Bank, China's agricultural price policy, 1987-1988

Best Doctoral Dissertation Award, Australian Society for agriculture and resource economics, 1994

John Logan Award for quantitative economics, National University of Australia, 1990

Notable Works|Publications

Monogragh

Growth without Miracles: Readings on the Chinese economy in the era of reform, co-editor with Ross Garnaut, Oxford University Press, 2001(513 pages).

China’s Last Steps Across the River: Enterprise and bank reforms, Asia Pacific Press, 2001(236 pages).

Agricultural Reform in China: Getting institutions right, Cambridge University Press, 1998(225 pages).

Academic journal papers

‘China’s asymmetric market liberalization: The great ascendancy and structural risks’, Asian Pacific Economic Literature, forthcoming.

‘The impact of Sars on Asian economies’, with Don Hanna, Asian Economic Papers, 2004, 3(1, Winter): pages 102-112.

‘Is Meltdown of the Chinese Banks Inevitable?’, China Economic Review, 2002, 13(4, December), pages 382-387.

‘Foreign entry into Chinese banking: Does WTO membership threaten domestic banks?’, with John P. Bonin, The World Economy, 2002, 25(8, August), pages 1077-1093.

‘Bank restructuring in post-crisis Asia’, with Don Hanna, Asian Economic Papers, 2002, 1(1, Winter), pages 3-42.

‘Dealing with the bad loans of the Chinese banks’, with John P. Bonin, Journal of Asian Economics, 2001, 12(2): 197-214.

‘Do Chinese grain farmers maximise profits?’, with K.P. Kalirajan, Indian Journal of Agricultural Economics, 1999, 54(4): 522-532.

‘How important is APEC to China?’, with Yongzheng Yang, Australian Economic Papers, 1999, 38(3): 328-342.

Reprinted, with some modifications, in Peter Drysdale, Yunling Zhang and Ligang Song (eds.), APEC and Liberalization of the Chinese Economy, Asia Pacific Press, 2000, pages 89-108.

‘Understanding the decline of China’s state sector’ with Wing Thye Woo and Ron Duncan,, MOST-MOCT: Economic Policy in Transitional Economies, 1999, 9(1): 1-15.

‘Did competition drive down the profitability of China’s state industry?’, with Ron Duncan, MOST-MOCT: Economic Policy in Transitional Economies, 1999, 9(1): 49-60.

‘China’s financial fragility and policy responses’, with Yongzheng Yang, Asian Pacific Economic Literature, 1998, 12(2): 1-9.

‘Enterprise reform and technical efficiency of China’s state-owned enterprises’, with K.P. Kalirajan, Applied Economics, 1998, 30: 585-592.

‘Which Chinese state-owned enterprises make loss?’, with Ron Duncan, Asia Pacific Journal of Economics and Business, 1997, 1(2): 41-52.

‘How should China feed itself’, with Yongzheng Yang, The World Economy, 1997, 20(7): 913-934.

Reprinted in Ross Garnaut and Yiping Huang (eds.), Growth Without Miracles: Readings on the Chinese economy in the era of reform, Oxford University Press, 2001, pages 154-169.

‘Potential of grain output in China: evidence from the household data’, with K.P. Kalirajan, Agricultural Economics, 1997, 17: 191-199.

‘Technological catch-up and economic growth in East Asia and the Pacific’, with Peter Drysdale, The Economic Record, 1997, 73(222): 201-211.

‘China’s trade liberalization and structural adjustments for the world economy’, with Lei Feng, Asian Economic Journal, 1997, 11(3): 283-297.

‘How successful were China’s state sector reforms?’, with Ron Duncan, Journal of Comparative Economics, 1997, 24: 65-78.

‘China’s industrial growth and efficiency: a comparison between the state and the TVE sectors’, with Xin Meng, Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, 1997, 2(1): 101-121.

Reprinted in Ross Garnaut and Yiping Huang (eds.), Growth Without Miracles: Readings on the Chinese economy in the era of reform, Oxford University Press, 2001, pages 292-307.

‘Industry structural change in rural China’, with Xiaowen Tian and Ron Duncan, Current Politics and Economics of China, 1997, 1(2/3): 103-118.

‘Technological choice of Chinese farmers’, with K.P. Kalirajan, China Economic Review, 1996, 7(2): 181-192.

‘An alternative method of measuring economic efficiency: the case of grain production in China’, with K.P. Kalirajan, China Economic Review, 1996, 7(2): 193-204.

‘Growth, energy and environment: new challenges for the Asia Pacific’, with Peter Drysdale, Asian-Pacific Economic Literature, 1995, 9(2): 1-12.

Report and booklet

Understanding the decline of China’s state sector: reform experiences and future direction, with Ron Duncan and Wing Thye Woo (guest editors), special issue, MOCT-MOST: Economic Policy in Transitional Economies, 1999, 9(1): 1-88.

Reform of China’s State-owned Enterprises: autonomy, incentive and competitiveness, with Ron Duncan (editors), Asia Pacific Press, Canberra, 1998.

(Vietnam) Advancing Rural Development: From vision to action, with Ron Duncan and others, World Bank, Washington D.C., 1998.

Grain Marketing Reform in China: Global implications, with Christopher Findlay and others, ACIAR Technical Reports 43, Australian Centre for International Agricultural Research, Canberra, 1998.

State Enterprise Reform in China: a critical review of policy, with Ron Duncan, Development Issues No. 3, National Centre for Development Studies, Australian National University, Canberra, 1996.

The Chinese Grains and Oilseeds Sectors: a review of major changes underway, Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, Paris, 1995.

Les secteurs des céréales et des oléagineux en chine: l’évolution en cours, Organisation de Coopération et de Développement Éxonomiques, Paris, 1995.

Government intervention and agricultural performance in China, unpublished PhD dissertation submitted to the Australian National University, Canberra, 1993.

Articles published in the collection

“Capital flows and foreign exchange reserves in Asia: Recent trends, policies and implications”, in Pete Petri, Jong Wha Lee and Masahiro Kawai (eds.), Emerging Asian Regionalism: Ten Years after the Crisis, 2009 (forthcoming).

“Will China fall into stagflation?”, in Ligang Song and Wing Thye Woo (eds.), China’s Dilemma: Economic growth, the environment and climate change, Asia Pacific Press and Brookings Institution, Canberra and Washington DC, 2008.

“Mature Chinese growth leads the global platinum age”, With Ross Garnaut, in Ross Garnaut and Ligang Song (eds.), China: Linking markets for growth, Asia Pacific Press and Chinese Academy of Social Sciences Press, Canberra and Beijing, 2007, pages 9-29.

“The turning point in China’s economic development”, with Ross Garnaut, in Ross Garnaut and Ligang Song (eds.), The Turning Point in China’s Economic Development, Asia Pacific Press, Canberra, 2006.

“The risks of investment-led growth”, with Ross Garnaut, in Ross Garnaut and Ligang Song (eds.,), The China boom and its discontents, Asia Pacific Press, Canberra, 2005.

“Is growth built on high investment sustainable?”, with Ross Garnaut, in Ross Garnaut and Ligang Song (eds.,), China: Is rapid growth sustainable? Asia Pacific Press, Canberra, 2004.

‘Private enterprise development in rural China’, with Fang Cai and Tina Chen, in Ligang Song (ed.), Private Enterprises in China, RutledgeCurzon, London and New York, 2003, pages 48-59.

“China’s integration into the regional and international financial system”, with Peter Drysdale, China’s Economic Development and Structural Change in East Asia, Shanghai Center for Economic Research, Graduate School of Economics, Kyoto University, Kyoto, 2003.

‘China’s growth pattern’, in Ross Garnaut and Ligang Song (eds.), China: the new growth engine for the world, Asia Pacific Press, Canberra, 2003.

‘Transforming China’s banking sector’, in Ross Garnaut and Ligang Song (eds.), China: the new growth engine for the world, Asia Pacific Press, Canberra, 2003.

‘China’s opening up of the banking system: Implications for domestic banks’, in Ligang Song (ed.), Dilemma of China’s Growth in the Twenty-First Century, Asia Pacific Press, Canberra, 2002, pages 55-72.

‘Cyclical growth rebound and secular consumption pattern’, in Ross Garnaut and Ligang Song (eds.), China 2002: WTO entry and world recession, Asia Pacific Press, Canberra, 2002, pages 17-28.

‘Why was China different?’, in Dipak Dasgupta, Mar Uzan and Dominic Wilson (eds), Capital Flows without crisis? Reconciling Capital Mobility and Economic Stability, Routledge Publishing, London, UK, 2001, pages 278-289.

‘China’s IT industry development and implications for policy’, in Li Luoli, ed., New Economy and Asia, Scientific & Cultural Publishing Co., Hong Kong, 2001, pages 225-331.

‘Why was China different?’, in Dipak Dasgupta, Mar Uzan and Dominic Wilson (eds), Capital Flows without crisis? Reconciling Capital Mobility and Economic Stability, Routledge Publishing, London, UK, 2001, pages 278-289.

‘China and the future of the international trading system’, with Ross Garnaut, in Peter Drysdale and Ligang Song (eds.), China and WTO: strategic issues and quantitative assessments, Routledge, 2000, pages 7-29.

‘China’s trade liberalisation and structural adjustments for the world economy’, with Lei Feng, in Peter Drysdale and Ligang Song (eds.), China and WTO: strategic issues and quantitative assessments, Routledge, 2000, pages 160-174.

‘Rapid economic growth in China: implications for the world economy’, with Warwick McKibbin, in Peter Drysdale and Ligang Song (eds.), China and WTO: strategic issues and quantitative assessments, Routledge, 2000, pages 194-216.

‘State-owned enterprise and bank reform in China: conditions for liberalisation of the capital account’, with Ligang Song, in Peter Drysdale (ed.), Reform & Recovery in East Asia: The role of the state and economic enterprise, Routledge, 2000, pages 214-228.

‘How important is APEC to China?’, with Yongzheng Yang, in Peter Drysdale, Yunling Zhang and Ligang Song (eds.), APEC and Liberalization of the Chinese Economy, Asia Pacific Press, 2000, pages 89-108.

‘China’s trade efficiency: measurement and determinants’, with Peter Drysdale and K.P. Kalirajan, in Peter Drysdale, Yunling Zhang and Ligang Song (eds.), APEC and Liberalization of the Chinese Economy, Asia Pacific Press, 2000, pages 259-271.

‘East Asian approaches to food security and some implications for the next WTO round’, with Ray Trewin, in Improving Japanese Agricultural Trade Policies: Issues, options and strategies, A Report for the Rural Industries Research and Development Corporation, Australia-Japan Research Centre, 2000, pages 103-124.

‘Agricultural trade liberalization in China: Political Economy and Adjustment Costs’, with Yongzheng Yang, in Tom Wahl and Colin Carter (eds.), China''''s Role in World Food Markets, IMPACT Center, Seattle, 1999, pages 62-84.

‘Implication for Vietnam of rural industrialisation in China’, in Suiwah Leung (ed.), Vietnam and the East Asian Crisis, Cheltenham: Edward Elgar Publishing, 1999, pages 193-205.

‘Has grain production reached its full potential?’, with K.P. Kalirajan, in K.P. Kalirajan and Yanrui Wu (eds.), Productivity and Growth in Chinese Agriculture, Macmillan Press, 1999, pages 175-190.

‘Do Chinese grain farmers maximise their profits?’, with K.P. Kalirajan, in K.P. Kalirajan and Yanrui Wu (eds.), Productivity and Growth in Chinese Agriculture, Macmillan Press, 1999, pages 208-220.

‘State-owned enterprise reform’, in Ross Garnaut and Ligang Song (eds.), China: Twenty years of reform, Canberra: Asia Pacific Press, 1999, pages 95-116.

‘Reform of China’s state-owned enterprises: key measures and policy debate’, with Fang Cai and Ron Duncan, in Yiping Huang and Ron Duncan (eds.), Reform of China’s State-owned Enterprises, Canberra: Asia Pacific Press, 1998, pages 1-34.

‘Agricultural trade policy for China’, with Yongzheng Yang, in Yongzheng Yang and Weimin Tian (eds.), China’s Agriculture at the Crossroad, MacMillan, 2000, pages.

‘Sustainability of rapid growth: Is China the same as the former Soviet Union?’, in Clement Tisdell and Joseph Chai (eds.), China’s Economic Growth and Transition, New York: Nova Science Publishers, pages 107-136.

‘Completing the third revolution’, in Ross Garnaut, Shutian Guo and Guonan Ma (eds.), The Third Revolution in the Chinese Countryside, 1996, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.

‘A turning point in China’s agricultural development’, with Ross Garnaut and Fang Cai, in Ross Garnaut, Shutian Guo and Guonan Ma (eds.), The Third Revolution in the Chinese Countryside, 1996, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.

‘China’s agricultural policy choices’, in Guitián and Robert Mundell (eds.), Inflation and Growth in China, 1996, International Monetary Fund, Washington D.C.

‘Characteristics of garment buyers in Japan: who buys wool products?’, with Weiguo Lu, in Christopher Findlay and Itoh (eds.), Wool in Japan, 1994, Harper Educational, Sydney.

‘Estimating elasticities of demand for garments in Japan: an application of the almost ideal demand system’, with Weiguo Lu, in Christopher Findlay and Itoh (eds.), Wool in Japan, 1994, Harper Educational, Sydney.

Review

Review of The Economics of Transition: From socialist economy to market economy, by Marie Lavigne, Journal of Comparative Economics, 28(2000): 426-427.

Review of Market and Institutional Regulation in Chinese Industrialization, 1978-94, by Dic Lo, China Journal, 2000.

Review of China’s rural development miracle, by Longworth (ed.), Australian Journal of Agricultural Economics, 34(3, 1990): 295-296.

Review of ASEAN-China Economic Relations: industrial restructuring in ASEAN and China, by Tan and Luo (eds.), Asian-Pacific Economic Literature, 9(2, 1995): 86-88.

Main Opnions

The economy of China is undergoing such a transformation from economic miracle to conventional development. In this transformation process, my expectation about economic change is reflected in six aspects:

First, the growth rate will slow down. Of course, such relatively slow growth rate may still be very fast compared with other emerging markets, but compared with the past, the trend of continuous slowdown will not change.

Second, inflationary pressures may rise. Because in the past, the prices of all factors were kept down, which is equivalent to artificially lowering costs. Now, opening these markets means that costs may gradually rise, and will last for quite some time. Of course, rising costs may squeeze profit margins, or be digested by technological progress, and naturally lead to higher inflationary pressures. It is up to policy makers to decide how much inflation they will eventually see. If policy makers want to maintain relatively fast economic growth, they should tolerate relatively high inflation. If they don't want high inflation, they should tighten monetary policy and fiscal policy, which means that the growth rate will come down, which can be decided by policy makers.

Third, our income distribution will be further improved. As mentioned above, the labor wage rises, the poor depend on the wage income, the rich depend on the return on investment, and the income distribution improves. Next, the interest rate marketization will improve the income distribution. The government has been working on the policy of income redistribution. There is a Kuznets Curve in economics. In the early stage of economic development, income distribution became more and more unbalanced, and it began to improve slowly at a certain stage. Now we may enter such a stage of gradual improvement.

Fourth, our economic structure will become more balanced. Previously, depending on investment and export, the proportion of consumption will gradually increase in the future, which may be a huge change. In the past, when we talked about China’s consumption, we always said it was luxury. But in fact, in the future, we will see a huge market of general consumer goods in China, and the consumption of general residents will continue to increase. Now the per capita GDP is 7000 US dollars, 10000 US dollars later, 20000 US dollars later. The improvement of this level may make Chinese consumer goods market become the most active market in the world, which has many huge opportunities.

Fifth, our industrial upgrading will continue to accelerate. The cheap products of the past two decades have been very competitive. I'm afraid it's difficult to continue such a story in the future. I'm afraid that in the next few years we'll have a new generation of competitive products. This also has something to do with the middle-income trap that we call. If an enterprise wants to keep going up, it is equivalent to falling into the middle-income trap.

Sixthly, our economic cycle will become more turbulent.

I have been doing research on this issue for the past five years, and I call these potential changes discussed above the next transformation of Chinese economy. Now it seems that this transformation has actually begun. These changes can also be seen as my interpretation of the new normal of the economy. The core is the familiar pattern, growth pattern and characteristics of Chinese economy, all of which need to change.

Controversy

The economy of China is undergoing such a transformation from economic miracle to conventional development. In this transformation process, my expectation about economic change is reflected in six aspects:

First, the growth rate will slow down. Of course, such relatively slow growth rate may still be very fast compared with other emerging markets, but compared with the past, the trend of continuous slowdown will not change.

Second, inflationary pressures may rise. Because in the past, the prices of all factors were kept down, which is equivalent to artificially lowering costs. Now, opening these markets means that costs may gradually rise, and will last for quite some time. Of course, rising costs may squeeze profit margins, or be digested by technological progress, and naturally lead to higher inflationary pressures. It is up to policy makers to decide how much inflation they will eventually see. If policy makers want to maintain relatively fast economic growth, they should tolerate relatively high inflation. If they don't want high inflation, they should tighten monetary policy and fiscal policy, which means that the growth rate will come down, which can be decided by policy makers.

Third, our income distribution will be further improved. As mentioned above, the labor wage rises, the poor depend on the wage income, the rich depend on the return on investment, and the income distribution improves. Next, the interest rate marketization will improve the income distribution. The government has been working on the policy of income redistribution. There is a Kuznets Curve in economics. In the early stage of economic development, income distribution became more and more unbalanced, and it began to improve slowly at a certain stage. Now we may enter such a stage of gradual improvement.

Fourth, our economic structure will become more balanced. Previously, depending on investment and export, the proportion of consumption will gradually increase in the future, which may be a huge change. In the past, when we talked about China’s consumption, we always said it was luxury. But in fact, in the future, we will see a huge market of general consumer goods in China, and the consumption of general residents will continue to increase. Now the per capita GDP is 7000 US dollars, 10000 US dollars later, 20000 US dollars later. The improvement of this level may make Chinese consumer goods market become the most active market in the world, which has many huge opportunities.

Fifth, our industrial upgrading will continue to accelerate. The cheap products of the past two decades have been very competitive. I'm afraid it's difficult to continue such a story in the future. I'm afraid that in the next few years we'll have a new generation of competitive products. This also has something to do with the middle-income trap that we call. If an enterprise wants to keep going up, it is equivalent to falling into the middle-income trap.

Sixthly, our economic cycle will become more turbulent.

I have been doing research on this issue for the past five years, and I call these potential changes discussed above the next transformation of Chinese economy. Now it seems that this transformation has actually begun. These changes can also be seen as my interpretation of the new normal of the economy. The core is the familiar pattern, growth pattern and characteristics of Chinese economy, all of which need to change.

The article “Thoughts on China's economic situation” written by Wang Jian, deputy Secretary General of the Chinese society of macroeconomics, and the article “Financial reform and economic transformation” written by professor Huang Yiping, vice president of the National Development Institute of Peking University and member of the monetary policy committee of the people's Bank of China have aroused a wide discussion.

The two scholars have different opinions on the current situation. Wang Jian believes that the significant increase in the proportion of the added value of the tertiary industry in China’s GDP is not the gratifying result of structural transformation, but the crowding out effect caused by industrial contraction.

However, professor Huang Yiping believes that China's economic growth model, which has lasted for 30 years, cannot keep going on. It turns out that we are mainly driven by exports and investment, and consumption may become more important in the future. Huang also believes that the two pillars that used to support China's miracle, labor-intensive manufacturing and heavy industry, are no longer good. The industrial structure must be transformed and new growth points should be found, that is, innovation and entrepreneurship. In addition, Huang Yiping believes that the current financial repression is very serious. We should excessive reform and promote financial innovation.

 

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