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Sunday, November 08, 2020
Biden's Victory Awakens Expectations of Many Countries
ANBOUND

While the U.S. election process is not yet over, Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden has largely secured the victory and will become the 46th U.S. President. This election has not only set the record for the largest number of voters in the United States (approximately 150 million people voted), but is also one that has attracted worldwide attention, and there is a good reason for this. As the world is impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic and geopolitical turmoil, how will the U.S., the world's most powerful country fare? Will it continue to drift further away from its allies and globalization under the leadership of Donald Trump, or will Biden lead it back to the normal state of the past? This is not only a matter of concern for the U.S., but also of the world as well.

Now, with Biden winning the election, the uncertainty of the U.S. election has been eliminated, and the world is now entering the “Biden era”, something that countries and regions in the world have begun to prepare to deal with. ANBOUND’s researchers noted that leaders of many countries and regions around the world have expressed formal or informal congratulations to Biden and vice-president-elect Kamala Harris. The "ANBOUND 100+" platform has sorted these congratulatory messages out as follows:

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson was the first G7 leader to congratulate Biden and Harris. Johnson said that the United States shares a “special partnership” with the United Kingdom. He expects the two sides to cooperate closely on multiple areas of which they share a common priority, including climate change as well as trade and security issues. In the early morning of November 8, German Chancellor Angela Merkel Twitted her congratulatory message, expressing her expectations to cooperate with Biden, and said that in view of the current challenges, the transatlantic friendship between Germany and the United States is irreplaceable. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau stated that the United States and Canada have a unique relationship and is committed to working together. French President Emmanuel Macron said that France and the United States have a lot of work to do to overcome today's challenges. As Biden is a descendant of Irish immigrants, Irish Prime Minister Micheál Martin said that Biden is a “stalwart friend” of Ireland, and he looks forward to cooperating with Biden. Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison said that the Australia-U.S. alliance is deep and enduring, based on common values. He looks forward to working with Biden to face many challenges of the world. New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern said that she would continue to work with the United States in many aspects on global issues.

In Asia, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi especially congratulated Harris, who is of Indian descent, for her unprecedented achievements and is confident that India-U.S. relations will improve. According to an analysis of the Indian media The Federal, based on the documents published by the Biden team in the past, the Biden administration will promote India to obtain a permanent seat on the UN Security Council. Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga congratulated Biden and expressed his expectations of cooperation and the continual strengthening of the Japan-U.S. alliance to ensure peace, freedom and prosperity in the Indo-Pacific region. South Korean President Moon Jae-in said that the South Korea-U.S. alliance is rock-solid and is looking forward to cooperating for shared values. He also quoted the official slogan for the South Korean-U.S. alliance “katchi kapshida” (let’s go together). Malaysian Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin congratulated Biden on his election as President, while Iran’s Chief Vice President Eshaq Jahangiri said that “the era of Trump and his adventurous and belligerent team is over”, and that he hopes to see changes in the destructive policies of the United States. Prime Minister Imran Khan of Pakistan congratulated Biden on winning the election and emphasized that he looked forward to working with Biden and was committed to establishing peace in Afghanistan and the rest of the region.

In addition, some national leaders in Africa, South America and West Asia also congratulated Biden on his election. As of November 8, the leaders and foreign affairs departments of China, Russia, Italy, North Korea and other countries have yet to congratulate Biden on his election.

After Biden is elected, the United States will undergo a major transformation which will have a major impact on the world. According to the researchers of ANBOUND, there will be two areas worthy of attention in the future: First, how will the multilateral policy of the United States be adjusted and changed? Regarding this issue, ANBOUND has previously analyzed and predicted Biden's policies on globalization, trade, climate change, foreign affairs, and internal affairs. Second, how will countries and regions in the world adapt to the United States in the Biden era? Changes in this area are related to the alteration and reorganization of the world pattern, which will affect the extent to which the globalization pattern that was "destroyed" by Trump is restored, or what new pattern will evolve. This is a key area that China needs to track, observe and predict.

Looking at the current situation, researchers at ANBOUND believe that a situation that is certain is that the election of Biden has awakened the expectations of many countries. Their intersection of the future international situation is that they hope the United States will return to "normal" and become the builder and the maintainer of global order. As pointed out in ANBOUND’s previous analysis, these expectations roughly include the following: (1) Continental European countries hope that the United States will return to building and strengthening transatlantic relations. Germany and France are particularly concerned about this change; (2) For most countries, it is hoped that the United States will return to climate change negotiations as well as multilateral cooperation such as the Paris Agreement; (3) For the United States’ major trading partners, it is hoped that the United States will abandon its punitive tariffs and reduce obstacles to global trade; (4) For most Western countries, it is expected that the United States will weaken "America First" and strengthen and consolidate values-based economic and trade cooperation, security cooperation, investment cooperation, intellectual property transactions, and technology transfer; (5) For major Asian countries such as Japan and India, it is hoped that the United States can continue to strengthen its presence in the Indo-Pacific region and promote a free and open Indo-Pacific strategy. India, under its special relationship with China, also has other agendas such as gaining the permanent seat of the UN Security Council; (6) For developing countries such as ASEAN, they expect the United States to maintain its presence in the Asia-Pacific region and bring the world back to the "normal" state.

On the whole, the "Trump era" has passed and the "Biden era" is imminent. If Biden can effectively unite Americans, bridge domestic differences, promote the domestic welfare trend, and simultaneously inherit a part of the unconventional diplomatic legacy of Trump, the United States and Western society may regain control of the world pattern. Those who think that the United States would fall into a serious divide, go into a long-term “civil war”, and quickly decline, are simply misguided. From a historical point of view, the four years of Trump’s administration are likely to be only a small part of fluctuations in American political history. It will bring about partial changes in the United States, but there will be no fundamental changes in the overall global trends and patterns. For China, it will need to adapt this return of normalcy under certain basis of changes. What needs to be clearly seen is that a considerable part of the global changes in the "Trump Era" is directed at China, and these changes will still be maintained.

Final analysis conclusion:

Biden's victory has awakened the expectations of many countries in the world, and the world will "get back on track" based on certain changes. How will China adapt to the changes in the world after the U.S. election? As we have analyzed before, this will mainly depend on the choices China makes.

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