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Monday, December 31, 2018
China Strategic Environment Report (2035)
Chan Kung, He Jun, Feng Yan

As the first comprehensive strategic environmental report, this report's assessment and definition of the world's strategic environment in the present until the year 2035 in the future is that for a considerable period of time, the world's main trend is the formation and construction of an irrational world. The conclusion of such irrational world builds upon several factors which includes protest movements throughout the world, the inefficiency of the government governance and its bureaucracy, the extreme attitudes and standpoints of various social classes, the non-evidence in imaginary enemies of various countries, the increasingly increase of isolationism that is becoming a mainstream thought in the society, as well as extremisms that create ruptures throughout in various countries.

In the current world, the existing ethics, rules and negotiation tradition are facing huge challenges, as the space for negotiation will be replaced by political rivalry, thereby it would be harder for all to reach consensus. Rational political leaders will not be able to utilize their leadership skills in a world like this. Disorder caused by the internet is spreading throughout the globe in an unprecedented speed and efficiency. In such a world, the power of organizing is highly distorted, as disorder and random organizations take advantage of the convenience of the internet. Historical logic, the truth, and facts are becoming insignificant to many, as many have increasingly focused on selecting and making a stand in order to seek for a sense of security that in reality cannot be found. This is a world that tremendously from the world that we used to know, to the extent that it is almost beyond recognition and shocking. Such a world is apparently, an irrational world.

According to the current trend of global development, various stable powers have become the main obstacles for this the emotionalized world.

The progress of the trend shows that certain deviations in the implementation of the Belt and Road Initiative from its targets, the unorganized interpretations of the Initiative, and disordered spatial advancement have provided facts and evidence for certain parties in the world, including the United States and other countries that are wary about the development prospect of China. The aspects mentioned earlier have served as foundation for these countries to position China as a major strategic competition. These countries generally believe that the Belt and Road Initiative is a proof that China's influence is reaching far and wide, and that it is a move of China to assume world leadership. They are deeply unsure about the prospects of the world with China's participation and are extremely worried.

Perhaps to China, the complications of the world's future strategic environment is that China has been defined as the main long-term strategic competitor by the major countries in the world. Thus, to a certain extent, China has become the main enemy of these main countries, instead of being a long-term developing and collaborating partner.

The main challenge for China is how to handle and manage the next 17 years, in fact to China, this is a huge and difficult strategic decision to make.

The long-term strategic competition of China, is generally defined as an action and reaction, fusion and diffusion. "Long-term strategic competition" can be used to describe and encompass territorial, political, and economic wars in the world as well. The fundamental objective of the long-term strategic competition is to erase China's influence in the world's economy and political stage, and to limit China's development in terms of commodity capacity, market space and technology regeneration. This is done in order to ensure the continuation of the Western powers in the development and influential spaces that have been in existence for centuries, especially the rules and systems as well as the international order led by the United States since World War 2.

The main challenge for China is how to handle and manage the next 17 years. To China, this is a huge and difficult strategic decision to make.

In the course of this "long-term strategic competition," facing various irrational and exaggerated blames and attacks, China will need to grasp the main points, face it calmly, and respond with confidence. What China ought to do is adhering to the path of integration and remain open, in addition to maintaining its image of a moderate power. China should stand on the height of maintaining international progress, thereby promoting globalization. Through this, it can maintain its open image, and promote the country's own economic progress and room for growth.

It will be a stormy world in the future, and there will be more problems, challenges and major risks, including the risk of financial crisis, geo-politics, and even nuclear disaster. At the same time, one needs to understand that the evolution of world history is a continuous process of human history. All this can be regarded as a new peak state in the great historical cycle. China should strive for the next stage in this historical cycle, which is still in the process of existing and development, in order to achieve a significant advancement and leap-forward in the global status. Therefore, it is very necessary for China now to maintain a kind of strategic self-confidence, stabilize risks, strengthen stability, reform and opening up, adopt a firm growth attitude, take on a firm strategic policy, and maintain its growth space. All these are to meet the challenges and difficulties it faces, so China needs to adjust its pace and rhythm with great policy courage, and strive to achieve its greatness in the new century.

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