ANBOUND's Second assessment of the Wuhan Pneumonia (January 29, 2020)
Infected people: Using mathematical models in the assessment, the total number of infected people is approximately 29,000, with death toll number being revised from 500 to 900.
Peak of the Epidemic: The assessment shows that condition of the epidemic will peak in 10 days’ time, February 9 to be precise, followed by a gradual dissipation. However, as the novel coronavirus is now known to be weaker than SARS, it is expected that measures to control the epidemic will continue for a period, under smaller number of conditions, which would cause the number of cases to fluctuate.
Funding for Epidemic Prevention and Control: Amendments were made following the first assessment. China’s overall investment in easing the epidemic is expected to exceed the RMB 100 billion, higher than that as estimated in the first assessment.
Impact on China's Economy: The second assessment concluded that the impact of the epidemic on economic growth was 0.5% -1.2%. Particularly, consumption during the Spring Festival was hit hard, whilst tourism, catering and movies were some of the industries affected the most. The quarterly economic growth is likely to fall below 5%. The results of the second assessment result is slightly lower than that of the first, which was 0.5% -1%.
The above results are a part of the information tracking research, which is an empirical research and is solely used for references only.
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