How does ANBOUND predict that the U.S. Dow will break the 30,000-point mark?
Question: At the time of the most intense
trade friction between the United States and China, many people would not
believe that three years after President Donald Trump was elected, the Dow would
rise by 11,000 points, which is about to exceed 29,000. This in effect sets its
fastest growth rate in the last three years. However, on September 26, 2019, ANBOUND's
chief researcher Chan Kung boldly predicted that the U.S. stock index would
eventually break through the 30,000-point mark. Is the reality now getting
closer and closer to the forecast?
Chan Kung: What we see in news reports are all
opinions. Among them, some are logical analysis, and some are ordinary comments
without logical background. The same is true for the prediction of the U.S.
stock index. The key issue is the judgment of the background of the U.S.
economic growth. First of all, as I have previously pointed out in the past,
the U.S.-China trade war will definitely reach a phased agreement because
neither side can afford the full consequences of trade decoupling. Then, there
is the stabilization of oil prices. Comprehensive assessment of global energy
prices shows that there will not be much fluctuation in 2020, and the price
level in 2019 will be roughly maintained, as long as the United States does not
make serious systematic mistake, it is expected that the U.S. stock market will
break through 30,000 points. In the then pessimistic time, I was optimistic
about the prospects of the U.S. economy three months ago, and this is the
fundamental reason for making such predictions. However, this forecast does not
represent a longer-term trend. I think that after 30,000 points, which is the
highest level of U.S. stocks in recent years, there will be a lot of struggles.
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